We picked sides and Greg handled the US while I took the attacking Germans. The victory conditions in this scenario are straightforward: whoever controls Mageret, Neffe and Bizory wins.
The Germans enter in areas E and D. The two volksgrenadier infantry groups (VG26 I/78 and VG26 I/77) enter one through area E and the other through area D, while the armored units (of KG 902) enter one area E. Looking at the map, it is apparent that area E is the key one as it is closer to the victory towns. Area D is too far to the north for the Infantry entering through there to have much of an impact, unless the American player is careless and allows road march over the road network.
The scenario starts with a limited movement by the Germans. The German units can only do normal movement, as road network and exploitation are not allowed in turn 1 for all scenarios in Bastogne. This reflects the fact that the attackers are reaching the combat area late in the day. Taking this into consideration, I decide to enter the map with KG902 in the extreme south of the setup area E, and rush forward to surround and take Mageret right away. This leaves the whole flank of the armored advance denuded of protection. Although there is no supply trace in this game, and therefore no obvious out of supply situations, I send the infantry component of KG902 to cut Victory Route B and have VG26 I/77 provide some flanking cover. VG26 I/78 on the other hand proceeds from area D towards Victory Route A, trying to pin and attack whatever allied units are in range.
Mutual barrages are successful in DG'ing enemy units, and the Allies actually destroy a step of one of the forward armored german units. In any case, Mageret falls and german armored units of KG902 fan out of the battle hex towards Bizori and Neffe, while also sending a unit north to protect the head of the column from an American riposte.
The American units of Team Cherry indeed fall back during Turn 2 to press against the German penetration, attempting in particular to clear up the block at VIctory Route B with a 2:1 attack. Luck however is not on the Allied side and the attack is respulsed with a 1,1 shot.
In their half of Turn 2, German attempt to clinch both Neffe and Bizory. Barrages again imply several units end up DG, but given that a number of allied artillery units were adjacent to german volksgrenadiers the leading armored forces of KG902 manage to be fresh for the attacks. They proceed at 2:1 odds on Neffe and 1:1 on Bizori, and the former falls. Also, an almost surrounded armored unit of Team Cherry is pushed back, releasing from EZOC contact an armored company that proceeds to exploit and make room for another adjacent hex to Bizori.
During Turn 3, American counterattacks snuff-out that armored company for failure to retreat, but fail again on a 1,1 combo on the attack vs the second hex adjacent to Bizori. This allows the Germans to infliltrate the American position and get a total of three hexes vs Bizori, while in Neffe another tank company pushes past American lines to get adjacent to artillery units. Further north, the infantry push gets more american artillery under EZOC.
US barrage DG's one of the German armored companies adjacent to Bizori, while all German batteries focus on Bizori, managing to DG and flip the garrison there. Bizori falls to a 3:1 attack.
In the end it is a German victory. We tend to agree with Greg that as Mageret is easily overrun in the first move by the German armored spearhead, the game boils down to either a draw or a German win. Aided with some extreme luck (snakes eyes in more than half the US attacks) it was the latter.